What if EU sovereign-compute push funds a regional AI capex wave?
European public-private 'AI gigafactory' programs fund domestic compute, adding a policy-driven demand stream for accelerators and lifting EU semiconductor suppliers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. European public-private 'AI gigafactory' programs fund domestic compute, adding a policy-driven demand stream for accelerators and lifting EU semiconductor suppliers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.82–+2.78% · other way -2.59% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.18–+1.33% · other way +2.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.13–+0.86% · other way -1.83% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.18–+1.1% · other way +0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.25–+1.18% · other way -10.4% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.27–+20.66% · other way +8.04% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.72–+2.3% · other way -10.05% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.11–+0.21% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.57–+0.67% · other way +2.42% (n=12) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.48–+1.63% · other way -0.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.05–+0.56% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–-0.08% · other way +4.23% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.87–+0.64% · other way -2.49% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.9% | 72% | 40 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +0bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +19.0% · 5d +1.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.2% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |