What if energy costs and Chinese competition force a sharp de-rating of European autos and industrials?
Energy-intensive European autos and industrials de-rate sharply as cost inflation, Chinese competition and tariff exposure compress both margins and valuation multiples.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Energy-intensive European autos and industrials de-rate sharply as cost inflation, Chinese competition and tariff exposure compress both margins and valuation multiples. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.86–-0.28% · other way +1.42% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.57–+0.43% · other way +1.45% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.57–+0.19% · other way +1.9% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.58–+4.8% · other way -1.59% (n=8) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.95–+0.99% · other way +20.17% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.84–-0.17% · other way +6.4% (n=11) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.6–-0.01% · other way +2.94% (n=11) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.73–+0.57% · other way +7.97% (n=11) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.44–-0.24% · other way +5.17% (n=11) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.78–+0.79% · other way -1.06% (n=9) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.23–+1.49% · other way +7.45% (n=11) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.79–-0.07% · other way +9.57% (n=11) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.61–+1.65% · other way +6.04% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -0.6% | 72% | 28 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 67% | 27 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.5% | 67% | 19 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 28 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 61% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -0.3% | 61% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +1.2% | 63% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.5% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 13 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 27 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 32 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 28 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |