What if a cold snap and supply cuts send European gas soaring?
A cold-snap-plus-supply-cut gas spike is a European, not US, shock: TTF surges, the energy-import hit weakens EUR/USD, and ammonia-linked fertilizer and food costs rise. Rhymes with the 2021-22 European gas crisis that sent EUR lower toward parity and shuttered ammonia capacity. The provided analogues (all Hormuz/Venezuela oil events) are mismatched. Forward angle: post-2022 LNG diversification and high storage cap the upside versus 2022 — the euro downside is smaller than the historical template.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. European natural gas spikes on a cold snap plus a Russian/Norwegian supply cut. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Natural gas ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.