What if a cold winter and LNG squeeze drive European gas prices back toward €180 per MWh?
A cold winter plus an LNG supply shock drives European TTF gas back toward €180/MWh, the energy-price spike embedded in ECB and BoE adverse stagflation scenarios.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cold winter plus an LNG supply shock drives European TTF gas back toward €180/MWh, the energy-price spike embedded in ECB and BoE adverse stagflation scenarios. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -10.42–+1.51% · other way +9.59% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.06–+0.1% · other way -0.92% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.49–+0.28% · other way +30.67% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–+0.56% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.13–+1.73% · other way +8.97% (n=11) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.54% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.81–+4.98% · other way -0.88% (n=11) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.08–+0.24% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.06–+0.17% · other way -6.59% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.37% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -1.55–+7.19% · other way +4.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–-0.08% · other way +6.43% (n=11) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -0.32–+4.18% · other way +8.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -3.7% | 74% | 33 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 66% | 34 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 33 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -5.0% | 67% | 6 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.5% | 59% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.1% · 5d -5.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 16 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 33 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +5bp | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 47% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 47% | 22 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +6.1% ↺ fades | 48% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -3.2% | 43% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |