What if EV-startup shakeout drives bankruptcies across the cohort?
Cash-burning EV startups exhaust funding amid weak demand and high rates, triggering a wave of bankruptcies and de-listings that de-rates the speculative-EV complex.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Cash-burning EV startups exhaust funding amid weak demand and high rates, triggering a wave of bankruptcies and de-listings that de-rates the speculative-EV complex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.59–+1.86% · other way +12.51% (n=10) |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.98–+0.62% · other way -2.38% (n=10) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -9.3–+1.31% · other way +1.02% (n=9) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.47–-0.15% · other way -1.67% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.72–+0.9% · other way -4.33% (n=10) |
| 7 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.99–+0.63% · other way +1.21% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.4–-0.11% · other way -1.27% (n=10) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.26–+1.56% · other way +1.0% (n=9) |
| 10 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -5.59–+0.49% · other way -4.82% (n=10) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.69–+0.57% · other way +3.53% (n=9) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.5–+1.44% · other way +10.25% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.59% · other way -1.35% (n=12) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–+0.15% · other way +25.28% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -2.4% | 80% | 36 | 0.48 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.1% | 73% | 36 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.4% | 70% | 36 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -7.3% | 74% | 31 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 39 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 66% | 36 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.3% | 68% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -6.4% | 65% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.9% | 64% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 36 | 0.19 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |