What if Executive pressure to fire a Fed governor breaks central-bank norms?
An attempt to remove an FOMC member 'for cause' triggers a constitutional standoff, undermining perceived Fed independence; the dollar and long bonds wobble while gold catches a haven bid.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An attempt to remove an FOMC member 'for cause' triggers a constitutional standoff, undermining perceived Fed independence; the dollar and long bonds wobble while gold catches a haven bid. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Gold ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.4% hist +1.14–+2.06% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.8% hist +0.11–+3.66% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.9% hist -0.02–+2.58% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 4 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.04–+0.72% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 5 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.82–-0.35% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 6 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.39–+0.68% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -9.15–+1.62% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist +2.83–+5.39% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 9 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.24–+0.52% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -0.02–+5.69% · other way +14.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–-0.06% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 12 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.7–+0.78% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.43–-0.24% · other way +1.6% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.91–+1.77% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -1.1% | 72% | 37 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -7.2% | 75% | 25 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 39 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -6.4% | 69% | 29 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.5% | 67% | 36 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 36 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.2% | 65% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -0.4% | 65% | 36 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 61% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |