What if Favorable monsoon: India posts record grain harvest?
A well-distributed monsoon delivers a bumper Indian rice and wheat crop, allowing export resumption that eases global grain prices and food inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A well-distributed monsoon delivers a bumper Indian rice and wheat crop, allowing export resumption that eases global grain prices and food inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Wheat ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▼ · Food inflation ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.78–+0.29% · other way -2.01% (n=6) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.62–+0.99% · other way -6.18% (n=6) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.6–+0.33% · other way +0.91% (n=6) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.06–+0.27% · other way -0.21% (n=6) |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.23–+0.13% · other way +0.11% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 43% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +-0.0% | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | · |