What if the Fed chair is abruptly replaced?
Independence shock: abruptly replacing the Fed Chair undermines reserve/dollar confidence — DXY falls, gold and bitcoin bid as non-sovereign hedges, front-end eases on expected dovishness. No clean modern analogue — the behavioral rhyme is the 1971 Nixon Shock / Burns-era politicization, which debased the dollar and bid gold for years. Forward angle: the novel angle is crypto now sits alongside gold as the de-anchoring hedge (MSTR levered to it); the trade is long gold/BTC and short USD, but watch the curve — politicized easing can steepen via a term-premium/inflation-risk back-up at the long end.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The Fed Chair is abruptly replaced, raising central-bank-independence fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.