What if the Fed makes an emergency 50bp rate cut?
Emergency 50bp inter-meeting cut: front-end and real yields drop, the 2y rallies ~8bp, and long-duration tech (Nasdaq) and crypto lead on the lower discount rate. The rhyme is the Mar-2020 emergency cuts and the SVB-week repricing (Mar-2023) — front end collapsed and growth/tech outperformed. Skeptic's note: an inter-meeting cut signals the Fed sees stress, so the knee-jerk risk rally can reverse if the why is a credit event rather than a soft-landing insurance cut — buy duration first, fade the equity pop until the catalyst is known.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The Fed cuts 50bps in an emergency inter-meeting move amid stress. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.