What if Fed emergency inter-meeting cut signals a fast-breaking crisis?
An unscheduled rate cut between meetings telegraphs alarm about a sudden shock, and the panic read initially deepens risk-off before the aggressive easing stabilizes funding markets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An unscheduled rate cut between meetings telegraphs alarm about a sudden shock, and the panic read initially deepens risk-off before the aggressive easing stabilizes funding markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.24–+0.59% · other way -3.7% (n=11) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.26–+1.26% · other way +1.31% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.66–+0.02% · other way -0.03% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.38–+2.23% · other way -3.43% (n=10) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.23–+1.11% · other way +17.19% (n=11) |
| 6 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.3–+0.08% · other way +0.78% (n=11) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–-0.03% · other way -0.54% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.86–+3.8% · other way -3.08% (n=10) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.25% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 11 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▼ -3bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -10.87–+2.75% · other way +21.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.27–+0.27% · other way +2.68% (n=11) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.55–+0.4% · other way +0.56% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.5% | 88% | 8 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -0.7% | 100% | 2 | 0.52 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.0% | 80% | 35 | 0.50 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -4.5% | 67% | 12 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.3% | 61% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.9% | 64% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +7.8% | 57% | 7 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d -2bp | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +5.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |