What if Fed loses inflation-expectations anchor?
A credibility shock un-anchors long-run inflation expectations; breakevens and gold surge, real yields rise and the dollar weakens in a regime change.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A credibility shock un-anchors long-run inflation expectations; breakevens and gold surge, real yields rise and the dollar weakens in a regime change. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.4% hist -1.62–+2.46% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +13bp hist -7.16–+30.63% · other way +5.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.79–-0.32% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -1.03–+2.93% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +12bp hist -6.25–+25.4% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.43–-0.04% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.91–+3.31% · other way +7.54% (n=12) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.94–+0.41% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.22–+1.03% · other way +1.48% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -6.46–+7.6% · other way +22.86% (n=12) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.68–+1.07% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 12 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.79–+0.89% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.2–+5.22% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.3% | 100% | 5 | 0.78 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -2.7% | 100% | 5 | 0.60 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.2% | 80% | 5 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.8% | 80% | 5 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 80% | 5 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -1.8% | 86% | 7 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.0% | 80% | 5 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 80% | 5 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +22bp · 5d +4bp | 70% | 11 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 67% | 6 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 6 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 5 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.6% | 60% | 5 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 60% | 12 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |