What if the Fed's operating losses halt Treasury remittances and spark political conflict?
Mounting Fed operating losses on its portfolio halt Treasury remittances for an extended period, drawing political fire and raising fiscal-monetary tensions.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mounting Fed operating losses on its portfolio halt Treasury remittances for an extended period, drawing political fire and raising fiscal-monetary tensions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.