What if Fed over-tightens on a flawed CPI signal and breaks credit?
A noisy inflation print scares the FOMC into one hike too many, cracking high-yield credit and CRE; spreads gap wider, the curve dis-inverts and equities de-rate on policy-error fears.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A noisy inflation print scares the FOMC into one hike too many, cracking high-yield credit and CRE; spreads gap wider, the curve dis-inverts and equities de-rate on policy-error fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.24–-0.2% · other way +14.34% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -3.47–+1.52% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.08–-0.14% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 4 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.05–+1.09% · other way -4.32% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -5.57–+1.8% · other way +6.67% (n=10) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.17–+0.33% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.87–-0.23% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.35–+0.03% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.79–-0.01% · other way +0.39% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.68–+0.18% · other way +0.86% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.45–+8.67% · other way +12.41% (n=8) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.61–+0.66% · other way +2.11% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.76–+0.04% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.8% · 5d +7.0% | 80% | 10 | 0.50 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -5.5% | 67% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.7% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.6% | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |