What if Fed raises its inflation target to 3% to ease the debt burden?
A framework review floats a higher inflation target to accommodate fiscal reality, un-anchoring long-run expectations; breakevens and gold rise while real yields and the dollar fall.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A framework review floats a higher inflation target to accommodate fiscal reality, un-anchoring long-run expectations; breakevens and gold rise while real yields and the dollar fall. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.7% hist -4.24–+12.4% · other way +14.41% (n=11) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.27–+1.32% · other way +1.78% (n=11) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.69–+3.68% · other way +0.39% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.74–+1.06% · other way -0.91% (n=10) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -3.6–+8.59% · other way +16.95% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.52–+4.08% · other way -2.33% (n=10) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–+0.02% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -3.05–+16.64% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 10 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.11–+0.46% · other way -1.29% (n=11) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -3.43–+17.62% · other way -1.3% (n=12) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.13–+0.39% · other way -1.23% (n=11) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.5–+0.6% · other way +0.72% (n=11) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.06–+0.42% · other way +0.9% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.5% | 69% | 36 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 69% | 36 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 64% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +5bp | 62% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +4bp | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.4% | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | · |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 54% | 36 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -6.9% | 54% | 35 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.5% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 36 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 51% | 36 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 35 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.8% · 5d +0.8% | 49% | 35 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |