What if overseas AI investors repatriate funds during a correction, deepening the US selloff?
Overseas investors who piled into US AI equities repatriate funds during a correction, intensifying the US selloff and transmitting it to home markets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Overseas investors who piled into US AI equities repatriate funds during a correction, intensifying the US selloff and transmitting it to home markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.39–+0.94% · other way +4.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.22–+1.11% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.3–+2.6% · other way +6.77% (n=12) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.83–+0.26% · other way -0.67% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.03–-0.08% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.72–+0.95% · other way +1.99% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.79–+1.16% · other way +9.23% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.05–+0.15% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.47–+0.11% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–-0.01% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.41–-0.08% · other way +2.14% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.5–+0.13% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.64–+3.93% · other way -4.69% (n=12) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.49–+0.64% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.9% · 5d -7.2% | 96% | 15 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -2.3% | 73% | 17 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.3% · 5d -4.4% | 75% | 16 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 32 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 33 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +3.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 15 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -4bp | 60% | 38 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -13bp · 5d -5bp | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -4.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +1.4% | 58% | 32 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |