What if French political deadlock pushes the OAT-Bund spread above 100bp?
Political deadlock over France's deficit pushes the OAT-Bund spread above 100bp toward periphery levels, with rating downgrades pressuring the second-largest euro sovereign.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Political deadlock over France's deficit pushes the OAT-Bund spread above 100bp toward periphery levels, with rating downgrades pressuring the second-largest euro sovereign. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.09–-0.14% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.71–-0.08% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.3–-0.16% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -5.46–+5.82% · other way +8.8% (n=12) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.87–-0.02% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.98–+4.73% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -7.02–+7.35% · other way +9.1% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.1–+0.94% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -9.91–+2.44% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–-0.08% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.74–+2.36% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 13 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.36–+0.18% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.62–+1.26% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.0% | 71% | 32 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -10.2% | 79% | 16 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 31 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +-0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 39 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 32 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.4% | 60% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.9% | 59% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -4bp | 57% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.3% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 25 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -5.3% | 58% | 12 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |