What if soaring costs to maintain France's ageing nuclear fleet drag on growth and public finances?
Soaring costs to maintain and rebuild France's ageing nuclear fleet, amid corrosion outages and EPR overruns, weigh on EDF and public finances and act as a persistent drag on French growth.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Soaring costs to maintain and rebuild France's ageing nuclear fleet, amid corrosion outages and EPR overruns, weigh on EDF and public finances and act as a persistent drag on French growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.