What if soaring costs to maintain France's ageing nuclear fleet drag on growth and public finances?
Soaring costs to maintain and rebuild France's ageing nuclear fleet, amid corrosion outages and EPR overruns, weigh on EDF and public finances and act as a persistent drag on French growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Soaring costs to maintain and rebuild France's ageing nuclear fleet, amid corrosion outages and EPR overruns, weigh on EDF and public finances and act as a persistent drag on French growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.43–+0.79% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.37–+0.33% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.72–+1.0% · other way +21.08% (n=11) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.77–+1.07% · other way -0.74% (n=11) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+0.22% · other way +6.17% (n=10) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist +0.17–+3.77% · other way +18.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.21–+0.05% · other way -0.97% (n=11) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist +0.3–+1.75% · other way +22.4% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.64–+5.29% · other way -1.52% (n=10) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.47–+0.08% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.06% · other way +0.58% (n=11) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.29–+0.31% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 13 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.52–+0.11% · other way -1.08% (n=11) |
| 14 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.61–+1.21% · other way -9.06% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +2.8% | 63% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 27 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 27 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +1.4% | 57% | 7 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.6% | 60% | 5 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 27 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 27 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.9% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 11 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +1.3% | 50% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |