What if Frontier capability plateaus?
Scaling laws bend and the next model generation underwhelms, puncturing AGI expectations and the valuations built on them.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Scaling laws bend and the next model generation underwhelms, puncturing AGI expectations and the valuations built on them. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▼ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.67–+0.25% |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.35–-0.6% |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.25–-0.26% |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.13–-0.5% |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.42–+0.41% |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.64–+0.19% |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.22–-0.25% |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.25–+0.37% |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.67–-0.31% |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.85–+0.11% |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -19.94–-0.72% |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.0–+11.31% |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.08–+0.48% |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.3% · 5d -6.7% | 95% | 18 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 24 | 0.31 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.6% | 66% | 23 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 23 | 0.23 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 24 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 23 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.2% · 5d +1.1% | 57% | 23 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.6% | 58% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 23 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.4% | 58% | 23 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.3% | 56% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 24 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d -1bp | 55% | 24 | 0.07 | · |