What if FX-swap and repo stress feed each other in a dollar doom-loop?
A repo spike pushes funding into FX swaps, blowing the basis, which pushes funding back into repo; the two markets reinforce a self-feeding dollar liquidity spiral.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A repo spike pushes funding into FX swaps, blowing the basis, which pushes funding back into repo; the two markets reinforce a self-feeding dollar liquidity spiral. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.2% hist -6.34–-0.31% · other way +27.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.9% hist -3.23–+0.01% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.5% hist -15.9–+4.29% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.56–+0.2% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -3.69–+1.27% · other way +21.75% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -5.84–+1.95% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.37–+1.3% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.72–-0.12% · other way -0.88% (n=12) |
| 10 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.93–-0.3% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.85–-0.04% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.13–+0.74% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.01–-0.17% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.54–-0.16% · other way -1.23% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.5% · 5d -10.9% | 100% | 7 | 0.61 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.5% | 70% | 11 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.3% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.1% | 64% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +6.9% | 62% | 7 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 35 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -2bp | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |