What if a coordinated attack targets G7 leaders at a summit?
A coordinated strike on multiple G7 leaders is a systemic governance tail: VIX explodes, global high-beta and semis gap down, and credit widens as vol-target funds delever. No precedent exists; the nearest behavioral rhyme is the post-9/11 reopening (NYSE shut a week, then fell ~12% before recovering). Forward angle: simultaneous decapitation of multiple governments removes the orderly-succession backstop that caps single-leader shocks, so this is the rare case where the vol spike should NOT be faded quickly — hedge convexity, don't sell premium.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A coordinated attack targets multiple G7 leaders at a summit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.