What if Gas glut delays US LNG FIDs as offtake economics sour?
A persistent global glut and thin spreads stall final investment decisions on next-wave US LNG projects, as developers struggle to sign bankable offtake at viable prices.
19%
our model probability over 1–3 years
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
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◎ Empirically anchored 19%· 90% range 4–35%· 40 analogues · measured class deflation 69% in 3 yr · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — deflation ≈0.3895/yr → 69% in 3 yr69%
Analyst prior · editorial share 26% of the class18%
Pooled · weight 87%20%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)20%
Published19%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A persistent global glut and thin spreads stall final investment decisions on next-wave US LNG projects, as developers struggle to sign bankable offtake at viable prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · AI capex ▼ · European energy ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
1
Natural gasNGon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▼ -0.2%
hist -2.12–+0.46% · other way -4.61% (n=11)
2
NvidiaNVDAon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Equity
▼ -0.2%
hist -2.12–+0.61% · other way +3.05% (n=11)
Probable recommendation
If the scenario above plays out, the probable cross‑asset positioning → a scenario‑conditional read, not personalized investment advice
For a common-man portfolio: Mixed for a typical portfolio — the move is more about rotation than direction. Favour the winners over the losers below rather than net exposure.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
Henry Hub natural gas hits a 25-year low amid record US production 2024-11↗Waha hub natural gas prices crash to record negative on Permian glut 2024-08↗WTI crude futures settle negative as demand collapses 2020-04↗Saudi-Russia oil price war 2020-03↗Oil collapses from $147 to the $30s as the GFC craters demand 2008-12↗1986 oil price collapse 1986-02↗Iran hostage crisis / US freezes Iranian assets 1979-11↗1979 Iranian Revolution oil shock 1979-01↗US intervention removes Maduro in Venezuela 2026-01↗Gold tops $4,000 and silver spikes past $50 in historic squeeze 2025-10↗Israel strikes Iran — Operation Rising Lion 2025-06↗Gold tops $3,000 for the first time amid tariff and rate-cut fears 2025-03↗TSMC slumps as DeepSeek roils AI-chip demand assumptions 2025-02↗Micron's weak FQ2 guidance sparks a sharp December selloff 2024-12↗ASML bookings-miss crash 2024-10↗October 2024 Iranian ballistic-missile attack on Israel 2024-10↗Gold tops $2,500 for the first time on Fed rate-cut bets 2024-08↗Megacap AI-capex doubt selloff 2024-07↗Trump 'Taiwan should pay for defense' chip selloff 2024-07↗Niger coup d'etat 2023-07↗PJM grid emergency during Winter Storm Elliott 2022-12↗Netflix subscriber-loss crash 2022-04↗Meta 2022-02↗Didi removed from China app stores after NYSE IPO 2021-07↗Texas grid failure during Winter Storm Uri 2021-02↗Gold closes above $2,000/oz for the first time 2020-08↗Norilsk Nickel Arctic diesel spill 2020-05↗Nvidia crypto-glut guidance crash 2018-11↗North Korea sixth nuclear test 2017-09↗North Korea 'fire and fury' nuclear scare 2017-08↗China rout & circuit-breaker / yuan slide 2016-01↗SNB introduces negative interest rates 2014-12↗Russian ruble 'Black Tuesday' 2014-12↗OPEC abandons output defense, opting for market share vs US shale 2014-11↗Gold futures velocity-logic flash crash 2014-01↗Gold all-time peak of $1,921/oz 2011-09↗Egyptian revolution / Mubarak uprising 2011-01↗OPEC's largest-ever cut answers the 2008 demand collapse 2008-12↗Crude oil all-time high 2008-07↗Henry Hub natural gas spot price peaks during 2008 commodity boom 2008-07↗