What if Gas-spike windfall lifts XLE on integrated upstream leverage?
A gas-price spike flows through to XOM, CVX and the broader XLE via their gas-weighted upstream and LNG portfolios, with the energy sector outperforming a softer tape on the inflation impulse.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A gas-price spike flows through to XOM, CVX and the broader XLE via their gas-weighted upstream and LNG portfolios, with the energy sector outperforming a softer tape on the inflation impulse. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.47–+0.93% · other way +2.75% (n=8) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.51–+1.54% · other way +8.05% (n=10) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.06–+0.49% · other way +2.09% (n=11) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.98–+1.74% · other way +4.12% (n=10) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.75–+5.06% · other way +1.6% (n=9) |
| 6 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.18–+1.03% · other way -1.12% (n=11) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.08–+0.45% · other way +0.34% (n=11) |
| 8 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.64–+1.78% · other way +3.41% (n=8) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.76–+2.37% · other way -2.67% (n=3) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.45–+8.06% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.0–+0.6% · other way +4.28% (n=3) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.08–+0.19% · other way -0.59% (n=11) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -4.83–+18.65% · other way +6.1% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 28 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.9% | 66% | 31 | 0.27 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +10bp | 63% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -2.4% | 62% | 29 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 28 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 61% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 28 | 0.21 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 29 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 29 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.6% | 56% | 28 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -6.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 23 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 29 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.5% | 56% | 27 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |