What if gas-turbine backlogs choke off on-site AI power?
Multi-year gas-turbine lead times blocking on-site AI power delay campus launches, a slow throttle on capex that nicks Nvidia and the chain. Rhymes with the current GE Vernova/Siemens Energy turbine backlogs already stretching to 2028+. Skeptic's note: the move is shallow and right — delayed is not destroyed; revenue slips right rather than evaporating, so this caps the timeline, not the TAM.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Multi-year turbine lead times block on-site AI power, delaying flagship campus launches. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.