What if cyber operations from a geopolitical conflict spill over into non-combatant financial systems?
Cyber operations launched in a geopolitical conflict spill over into the financial systems of non-combatant states, the collateral-damage scenario (echoing NotPetya) the FSB and IMF treat as systemic.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Cyber operations launched in a geopolitical conflict spill over into the financial systems of non-combatant states, the collateral-damage scenario (echoing NotPetya) the FSB and IMF treat as systemic. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +8.8% hist +3.07–+5.9% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.7% hist -2.45–-0.82% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.75–-0.4% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.0–+0.25% · other way +25.41% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.07–-0.42% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.0% hist -3.31–+0.28% · other way -3.1% (n=11) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.05–+0.79% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -8.04–+2.43% · other way +6.3% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.98–+0.55% · other way +6.5% (n=11) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.9–-0.24% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.08–+0.26% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.21–+1.92% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.15–+0.7% · other way +0.74% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.8% · 5d +5.8% | 74% | 11 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 34 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -6.2% | 66% | 17 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +1.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |