What if an indebted German state needs a federal bailout?
A German Land bailout dents Bund-market confidence at the margin — Laender spreads to Bunds widen modestly, but Germany's fiscal strength makes this a contained signal, not a crisis; the global crypto cascade is overstated. No major crisis analogue fits; it rhymes more with routine German solidarity transfers than with a sovereign event. The transmission is the joint-and-several Laender funding model; the forward angle is that post-debt-brake-reform Germany has more issuance capacity to absorb this, so it reads as a slow erosion of Bund scarcity rather than an acute shock.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A heavily indebted German Land requires a federal bailout, denting bund market confidence. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.