What if Germany's debt brake keeps growth structurally weak even as defence and infrastructure needs mount?
Prolonged fiscal restraint under the debt brake, amid deindustrialisation pressure, keeps German growth structurally weak even as defence and infrastructure needs mount.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Prolonged fiscal restraint under the debt brake, amid deindustrialisation pressure, keeps German growth structurally weak even as defence and infrastructure needs mount. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.