What if a global treaty halts frontier AI training?
A frontier-training moratorium pulls the AI-capex bid: NVDA leads lower as the order-book bellwether, dragging HBM (Micron), custom silicon (AVGO) and the broad semi complex. Direct rhyme is the Jan-2025 DeepSeek shock and Oct-2024 ASML bookings miss, which repriced chip demand 10-15% in days. Skeptic's note: a treaty is slow and leaky, so the equity hit is a sentiment derating, not a fundamentals collapse; the real risk is multiple compression on the capex names, with inference demand a partial offset.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A global treaty/moratorium halts frontier AI model training. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.