What if Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-on?
A broad rollback of reciprocal tariffs across major blocs revives trade volumes and capex; cyclicals, EM FX and global growth re-accelerate in a clean risk-on regime.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A broad rollback of reciprocal tariffs across major blocs revives trade volumes and capex; cyclicals, EM FX and global growth re-accelerate in a clean risk-on regime. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.75–+1.91% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.12–+3.18% · other way +1.67% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist -0.74–+4.32% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.55–+1.74% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist -0.14–+3.54% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.7% hist -2.71–+7.68% · other way +7.69% (n=5) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -5.2–+12.68% · other way +10.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -1.48–+1.22% · other way +0.58% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.02–+2.42% · other way +3.55% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.33–+1.66% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.22–+2.94% · other way +1.11% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.5–+1.07% · other way -1.04% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.15–+0.86% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 68% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NIFTY NIFTY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.5% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -6.8% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |