What if Globalization 2.0 disinflation: new trade corridors cut costs?
New low-cost trade corridors and friend-shoring efficiencies revive a disinflationary globalization impulse, easing goods prices and supporting consumer demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. New low-cost trade corridors and friend-shoring efficiencies revive a disinflationary globalization impulse, easing goods prices and supporting consumer demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.32–+0.84% · other way +0.88% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.12–+1.8% · other way +1.06% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.16–+0.86% · other way +1.09% (n=11) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.99–+3.13% · other way -1.0% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.8–+6.57% · other way +5.67% (n=8) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.38–+2.57% · other way +0.02% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.26–+13.49% · other way +11.26% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.48–+1.09% · other way +0.82% (n=11) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.05–+1.1% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.04–+0.86% · other way -1.1% (n=11) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.32–+1.84% · other way +3.12% (n=11) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.76–+2.55% · other way -7.34% (n=11) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.25–+0.58% · other way -2.03% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.4% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -6.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.6% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |