What if Gold breaks out as inflation expectations resurge?
An upside inflation surprise unanchors expectations and revives the inflation-hedge bid for gold, which breaks higher even before the Fed responds.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An upside inflation surprise unanchors expectations and revives the inflation-hedge bid for gold, which breaks higher even before the Fed responds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -2.29–+2.88% · other way +5.5% (n=10) |
| 2 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -3.14–+3.58% · other way +4.5% (n=10) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.13–+0.32% · other way -1.45% (n=10) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.32–+0.63% · other way +2.43% (n=9) |
| 5 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.04–+0.38% · other way +0.79% (n=10) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.41–+0.08% · other way -1.17% (n=10) |
| 7 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -12.52–+6.19% · other way -10.06% (n=2) |
| 8 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +2bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.65–+0.18% · other way -1.16% (n=8) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.41–+1.11% · other way -1.22% (n=2) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.66–+0.18% · other way -1.06% (n=8) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.31–+1.06% · other way +1.31% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -12.2% · 5d -10.9% | 86% | 7 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.6% | 57% | 28 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 28 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 28 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 28 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 54% | 28 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -7.7% | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 46% | 28 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 24 | 0.00 | · |