What if Grid-build disinflation: power abundance unlocks non-inflationary AI?
A massive grid and generation build-out delivers power abundance that lowers electricity costs and removes the bottleneck to non-inflationary AI-driven growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A massive grid and generation build-out delivers power abundance that lowers electricity costs and removes the bottleneck to non-inflationary AI-driven growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.04–-0.19% · other way +2.93% (n=8) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.34–+0.41% · other way -5.1% (n=8) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -5.99–+20.6% · other way +9.44% (n=8) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.33–+1.93% · other way +0.31% (n=8) |
| 5 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.68–-0.22% · other way +2.37% (n=8) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.14–+0.55% · other way -1.29% (n=9) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.56–-0.12% · other way +2.37% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.19–+0.62% · other way -6.68% (n=8) |
| 10 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.63–+0.0% · other way +1.43% (n=8) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.14–+0.7% · other way -0.87% (n=8) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.01–+0.95% · other way -2.95% (n=9) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.13–+0.61% · other way +0.19% (n=8) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.18–+3.11% · other way -4.77% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.6% | 76% | 40 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -2.2% | 79% | 39 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -4.9% | 69% | 38 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 66% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +18.2% · 5d +0.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.2% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +0bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.1% | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d 0bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |