What if a grid operator freezes new data-center connections?
A grid operator halting data-center hookups strands gigawatts of planned capacity, capping buildouts and pressuring Nvidia on deferred orders. Echoes Dublin's and Virginia's real 2022-24 interconnection moratoria that paused hyperscale expansion. Forward angle: this is the binding constraint of the cycle — interconnection queues run 4-7 years; the trade is that power-delivery names and behind-the-meter generation are the scarce asset, not silicon.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A regional grid operator halts new data-center hookups, stranding gigawatts of planned AI capacity. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.