What if EU CBAM extends to petrochemicals and penalises Gulf exporters' carbon intensity?
EU CBAM extension to petrochemicals and refined products penalises Gulf exporters' carbon intensity, eroding a key diversification revenue stream for Saudi industry.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. EU CBAM extension to petrochemicals and refined products penalises Gulf exporters' carbon intensity, eroding a key diversification revenue stream for Saudi industry. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.02–-0.29% · other way +0.07% (n=10) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.95–-0.51% · other way +0.4% (n=9) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.21–+0.64% · other way -3.59% (n=9) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.32–-0.14% · other way -0.31% (n=9) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.85–+0.04% · other way -0.59% (n=9) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.71–-0.09% · other way -6.12% (n=5) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.83–+0.17% · other way +0.43% (n=10) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.92–+0.37% · other way +2.04% (n=7) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.75–-0.02% · other way -1.3% (n=10) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.9–+0.62% · other way -0.07% (n=9) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.05–+0.36% · other way -2.21% (n=9) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.7–-0.09% · other way -0.66% (n=9) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.14–+0.81% · other way -2.83% (n=9) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–-0.14% · other way +12.56% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -0.9% | 73% | 39 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.1% | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +-0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -4.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |