What if Israel and Saudi Arabia normalise relations?
Modest de-escalation: Abraham Accords 2.0 trims the Gulf risk premium — VIX -9, Brent off ~2%, equities firmer. The rhyme is the 2020 original Accords, which barely moved oil but supported regional equities and the broad risk tone. Transmission: Saudi-Israel normalization is more strategic than supply-moving (Saudi taps aren't the variable), so the oil channel is small; forward angle — the real market expression is Gulf equities, defense/tech cooperation flows, and a slightly lower geopolitical vol floor, not a crude trade. Skeptic's note: announcement risk is high; deals here have a habit of slipping.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. An Israel-Saudi normalization deal (Abraham Accords 2.0) is announced. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.