What if Hard-landing recession: overtightening breaks the labor market?
Cumulative tightening finally cracks employment, unemployment jumps and a recession signal fires; credit spreads blow out, the curve dis-inverts and equities fall.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Cumulative tightening finally cracks employment, unemployment jumps and a recession signal fires; credit spreads blow out, the curve dis-inverts and equities fall. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Labor surplus ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -4.92–+0.7% · other way +15.45% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -11.07–+4.41% · other way -13.98% (n=11) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.5% hist -1.14–+1.19% · other way -10.38% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.9–-0.06% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -6.93–+2.79% · other way -4.02% (n=11) |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.85–-0.26% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.12–-0.25% · other way +1.56% (n=11) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.51–+0.05% · other way -0.76% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.23–+0.42% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.73–+0.21% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.33–+3.41% · other way +7.8% (n=11) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.67–-0.07% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.8–+1.48% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -9.6% | 80% | 10 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 69% | 28 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -5.5% | 66% | 14 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.6% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.3% | 64% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +5.6% | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +6.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 35 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |