What if a US-China trade war collapses Hong Kong's re-export and logistics volumes?
A US-China trade war and global slowdown collapse Hong Kong re-export and logistics volumes, dragging GDP and lifting trade-finance and SME loan delinquencies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A US-China trade war and global slowdown collapse Hong Kong re-export and logistics volumes, dragging GDP and lifting trade-finance and SME loan delinquencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.3–-0.51% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.5–-0.61% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.69–+0.11% · other way +4.56% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.07–-0.6% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.24–-0.46% · other way +23.21% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.04–-0.27% · other way +3.61% (n=12) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.39–+0.13% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -15.05–+7.2% · other way -2.36% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.47–+0.75% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.1–+0.26% · other way +1.53% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.55–+1.09% · other way +3.77% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.81–+0.5% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.42–-0.08% · other way -1.52% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.2% | 74% | 24 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -9.5% | 70% | 19 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 23 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +2.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 26 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.2% · 5d -19.8% | 67% | 13 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 24 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.0% | 62% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 24 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.7% | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.4% | 61% | 26 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 24 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |