What if a hyperscaler slashes its AI capex guidance by 30%?
A 30% hyperscaler capex cut is the cleanest bear case: it directly removes order flow from Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron HBM, and bleeds into high-beta crypto via risk appetite. Closest analogue is the Jan-2025 DeepSeek shock, which took Nvidia down ~17% in a session on a demand-efficiency scare. Forward angle: with one hyperscaler guiding down, watch whether peers reaffirm — a single cut historically gets bought unless a second confirms.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A megacap cuts AI capex guidance 30%, cascading through Nvidia, memory, power and data-center supply chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.26–-0.54% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.42–+0.33% · other way +5.73% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -4.18–+0.33% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.79–-0.14% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -9.48–+1.42% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.79–+2.48% · other way +10.05% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.29–+0.05% · other way -3.31% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.7–+0.12% · other way +1.86% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.88–+0.78% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.53–-0.14% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.72–+0.89% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.31–+2.26% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.64–+0.73% · other way -2.95% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade SHORT HYG: analogue moves are ~0% and drawn from chip-equity selloffs, not credit events — the base rate is noise, and a 30% capex guide-down widens HY spreads.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -6.4% | 72% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.2% | 71% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.7% | 65% | 40 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -5.3% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.7% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
Why this probability
Capex still ramping mid-2026; a clean 30% guide-down is rare though scrutinized; short window. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.