What if India emerges as a third pole between the US and China?
India as a decisive third pole is a mild pro-growth, mild dollar-diversification story, so the modeled move is a small risk-on tilt with gold/bitcoin softly bid and DXY a touch lower — MIXED, not risk-off. Rhymes with the post-2014 and Dec-2025 RBI growth-pivot phases that drew portfolio inflows into Indian equities and bonds (JPM index inclusion). Transmission: India balances US tech/capital against discounted Russian crude; forward angle — the cleanest expression is Indian equities, the rupee and local-currency bonds, not the US-centric gold/BTC cascade shown here.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. India emerges as a decisive third pole, balancing between the US and China blocs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.