What if full EU carbon border adjustment plus retaliation from China and India fragments carbon-intensive trade?
Full CBAM implementation plus retaliatory measures from China, India and Turkey fragments carbon-intensive trade, raising costs and inviting a tariff spiral.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Full CBAM implementation plus retaliatory measures from China, India and Turkey fragments carbon-intensive trade, raising costs and inviting a tariff spiral. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.6% hist +1.08–+5.1% · other way -0.14% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.5–-1.17% · other way -0.16% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.7–-0.88% · other way +3.27% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.52–-0.41% · other way -0.02% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.42–-0.57% · other way +6.07% (n=11) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.75–+0.03% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.3–-0.16% · other way +0.39% (n=11) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.48–+0.94% · other way +2.35% (n=11) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.77–+0.2% · other way +0.15% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.29–-0.54% · other way +3.52% (n=11) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.36–+0.64% · other way -3.28% (n=10) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.2–+0.95% · other way +30.92% (n=11) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.45–+0.18% · other way -1.77% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.33–-0.27% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 73% | 35 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.0% | 69% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.7% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -8.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |