What if India's national grid trips and goes dark?
A frequency cascade collapsing India's northern/eastern grids idles industry, trimming near-term metals demand — copper and the copper-miner beta soften on lost consumption. Direct analogue: the July 2012 India blackout, the largest in history (~620M affected), which halted factories and rail but had only a transient commodity impact. Transmission: India is a marginal, not dominant, copper/coal consumer, so the global price effect is muted; the bigger real-economy hit is domestic industrial output and coal-import scrambling.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A frequency cascade collapses India's northern and eastern grids, leaving 700 million without power for days. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.