What if India re-imposes its rice export ban?
An Indian non-basmati ban yanks ~a third of globally traded rice — the direct trade is a rice price spike and food-CPI stress in import-dependent West Africa and the Gulf, NOT the water-fabs/semiconductor detour the climate_supply root drags in. Rhymes exactly with India's Jul-2023 ban that drove Thai/Vietnamese rice to ~15-year highs. Transmission: Philippines, Nigeria, Senegal import most; their FX weakens. Forward: rice is thinly traded and politically sticky, so a re-ban front-runs panic stockpiling faster than wheat.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. With monsoon failing and buffer stocks drawn down, India re-imposes its non-basmati rice export ban, abruptly removing a third of global trade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Food inflation ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.