What if Indonesia bans palm oil exports again?
An Indonesian palm-oil export ban squeezes the global veg-oil complex — long palm/soyoil/rapeseed and biodiesel feedstock; the semiconductor/Nasdaq/yuan trade-war cascade is entirely misattributed to a softs supply shock. Rhymes precisely with Indonesia's Apr-2022 ban that spiked all edible oils before it was lifted in weeks. Transmission: India and China (top palm importers) bear the food-inflation hit. Forward: bans historically prove short-lived as domestic tanks overflow, so the asymmetry is a sharp spike then fade — sell the panic.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Indonesia reinstates a full palm-oil export ban, squeezing global vegetable-oil supply and lifting soyoil and rapeseed sharply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.