What if Indonesia bans palm oil exports again?
An Indonesian palm-oil export ban squeezes the global veg-oil complex — long palm/soyoil/rapeseed and biodiesel feedstock; the semiconductor/Nasdaq/yuan trade-war cascade is entirely misattributed to a softs supply shock. Rhymes precisely with Indonesia's Apr-2022 ban that spiked all edible oils before it was lifted in weeks. Transmission: India and China (top palm importers) bear the food-inflation hit. Forward: bans historically prove short-lived as domestic tanks overflow, so the asymmetry is a sharp spike then fade — sell the panic.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Indonesia reinstates a full palm-oil export ban, squeezing global vegetable-oil supply and lifting soyoil and rapeseed sharply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.54–-0.25% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.58–-0.02% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.84–-0.11% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.78–+0.54% · other way +0.79% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.96–+1.05% · other way -2.1% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.98–+1.16% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.89–+0.53% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.16–+2.06% · other way +2.57% (n=12) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.48–+0.82% · other way -1.14% (n=11) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.21–+0.72% · other way -4.29% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.72–-0.01% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.4–+0.38% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 13 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.22–+0.33% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 14 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.79–+0.71% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR: +40-65% analogues sit squarely in the 2025 BTC bull — a palm-oil ban repricing vegoils can't lift MSTR when bitcoin's rally swamps the proxy.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.6% | 72% | 27 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 24 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.8% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 18 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 24 | 0.06 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 24 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 26 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +5.6% | 53% | 25 | 0.05 | · |
Why this probability
Indonesia palm ban precedent exists but proved costly; reluctant to repeat; needs domestic cooking-oil crisis. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.