What if Industrial silver demand falters as electronics cycle turns down?
A downturn in the global electronics and semiconductor cycle cuts industrial silver use; with PV alone insufficient, the deficit narrows and silver slips.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A downturn in the global electronics and semiconductor cycle cuts industrial silver use; with PV alone insufficient, the deficit narrows and silver slips. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Silver ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.93–+0.14% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 2 | Silver XAGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.35–-0.11% · other way +2.58% (n=11) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.9–+0.63% · other way +1.61% (n=11) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.09–+0.49% · other way +10.73% (n=11) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.2–+0.14% · other way +1.87% (n=11) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.38–+1.04% · other way -2.85% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.55–+0.98% · other way -6.82% (n=9) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.69–+1.2% · other way +17.05% (n=11) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.0–+0.3% · other way -0.4% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+0.05% · other way +0.49% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -5.3% | 77% | 27 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 71% | 33 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 33 | 0.28 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 34 | 0.22 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.5% | 65% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | · |
| XAG XAG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 55% | 33 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 33 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |