What if one model-API outage takes down thousands of AI apps at once?
A single-vendor API outage is a reliability scare, not a demand cut, so the hit is shallow and mean-reverting: NVDA and the semi complex dip on agentic-app concentration fears but the capex thesis is intact. Closer to the CrowdStrike July-2024 global outage — sharp headline, fast recovery once service restored — than to DeepSeek. Forward angle: real repricing is in enterprise multi-cloud redundancy spend, a marginal positive for #2 inference vendors, not a lasting NVDA negative.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A shared model-API outage simultaneously downs thousands of agentic apps, exposing single-vendor concentration risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.