What if a single cloud outage simultaneously disrupts claims, pricing and trading across many insurers?
Concentration on a few AI and cloud vendors means one outage simultaneously disrupts claims, pricing and trading across many insurers, an operational-resilience risk the IAIS now tracks.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Concentration on a few AI and cloud vendors means one outage simultaneously disrupts claims, pricing and trading across many insurers, an operational-resilience risk the IAIS now tracks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.23–+0.54% · other way -5.18% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -18.89–+0.33% · other way -17.65% (n=10) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.86–+0.3% · other way +10.12% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.13–+1.57% · other way +0.24% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.0–+0.14% · other way +1.49% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.4–+0.05% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.63–+0.42% · other way +2.78% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.11% · other way +3.62% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–+0.53% · other way +1.56% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.68–+0.57% · other way -0.97% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.44–+0.54% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.21–+1.19% · other way +7.86% (n=9) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.11% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.1% · 5d -7.5% | 100% | 15 | 0.65 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -4.1% | 69% | 20 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +3.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.0% | 57% | 23 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.5% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.7% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |