What if acute market stress forces an unscheduled inter-meeting rate cut?
Acute market stress forces an unscheduled inter-meeting rate cut of 50–100bp (2008/2020 style), signaling the Fed's loss of control over an orderly easing path.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Acute market stress forces an unscheduled inter-meeting rate cut of 50–100bp (2008/2020 style), signaling the Fed's loss of control over an orderly easing path. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -6.65–+3.08% · other way +3.38% (n=11) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.58–+2.01% · other way +2.39% (n=11) |
| 3 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.36–-0.1% · other way +1.58% (n=11) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–+0.3% · other way +0.92% (n=12) |
| 5 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▼ -4bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.49–+0.5% · other way +0.68% (n=11) |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -2.05–-1.01% · other way +25.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -5.6–+0.65% · other way +30.6% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.37–+0.47% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–-0.03% · other way -0.3% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.63–+2.34% · other way -5.21% (n=11) |
| 13 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.31–+0.38% · other way -0.28% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.15–-0.01% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.1% | 89% | 18 | 0.64 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -0.7% | 100% | 2 | 0.52 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 75% | 4 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.0% | 69% | 19 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d +9.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +5bp | 59% | 19 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 11 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 54% | 19 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 51% | 18 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 51% | 17 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 51% | 18 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |