What if Iran-deal disinflation lets the Fed cut?
Lower oil from an Iran settlement pulls headline inflation down, giving the Fed room to ease; the dollar softens, EM FX firms and global risk appetite improves.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Lower oil from an Iran settlement pulls headline inflation down, giving the Fed room to ease; the dollar softens, EM FX firms and global risk appetite improves. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.4% hist -4.77–+12.87% · other way +14.03% (n=5) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% hist -5.66–+9.65% · other way +2.36% (n=5) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.14–+1.43% · other way +0.55% (n=5) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% hist -2.09–+4.36% · other way -5.62% (n=5) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.2–+0.73% · other way -0.13% (n=5) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.04–+4.82% · other way -0.58% (n=5) |
| 8 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -15.82–+20.11% · other way +15.26% (n=5) |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.1–+0.76% · other way +0.41% (n=5) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.4–-0.04% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.19–+0.6% · other way -0.92% (n=5) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.78–+0.54% · other way -1.69% (n=5) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.01–+0.31% · other way -0.99% (n=5) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.22–+1.23% · other way +0.25% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -4.4% | 73% | 21 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 72% | 11 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +2bp | 70% | 22 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 17 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 21 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.6% | 60% | 17 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.1% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 11 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.8% · 5d +5.9% | 57% | 8 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 18 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.2% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 19 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -7.9% ↺ fades | 48% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +1.5% ↺ fades | 44% | 17 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |