Iran — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Iran and its globally‑connected markets.
106 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
40%6–18 months
What if Heavy-sour glut widens discounts as upgraders run flat-out?
36%6–18 months
What if Iran sanctions relief adds 1.3 mb/d into an oversupplied market?
35%0–6 months
What if Iran's inflation tops 80 percent as deficit monetisation accelerates?
29%1–3 years
What if Sanctions relief reopens a major economy to trade?
28%6–18 months
What if Middle East ceasefire cools the air-defense and munitions trade?
27%0–6 months
What if failed sanctions talks collapse Iran's rial past 1.6 million?
27%0–6 months
What if Hormuz gas-feedstock cost-push spikes Middle-East urea?
23%1–3 years
What if Strategic-reserve coordination caps any Hormuz spike?
22%1–3 years
What if Pipeline bypass routes blunt the Hormuz weapon?
22%0–6 months
What if Iran export crackdown pulls 1 mb/d of barrels off the water?
21%6–18 months
What if Strait-of-Hormuz threat spikes oil and vol?
20%0–6 months
What if Israel bombs Iran's nuclear sites and Iran retaliates?
20%6–18 months
What if Hormuz mines cleared, flows normalize?
18%0–6 months
What if Iran ballistic salvo overwhelms Israeli defenses?
18%6–18 months
What if Iran sanctions relief returns 1.5mbd to market?
18%6–18 months
What if Syria sectarian war reignites?
18%1–3 years
What if Iran-deal disinflation re-rates EM oil importers?
18%1–3 years
What if Comprehensive regional security framework signed?
18%3–10 years
What if Iran opening and reintegration ease oil-supply risk (good)?
17%0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
17%6–18 months
What if Covert Iranian enrichment breakout exposed?
17%1–3 years
What if Iran-Israel back-channel de-escalation holds?
17%1–3 years
What if De-escalation flips Brent into contango glut?
17%1–3 years
What if Iran-deal sanctions relief revives tanker oversupply?
16%6–18 months
What if a US-Iran nuclear deal reopens Iranian oil?
16%0–6 months
What if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil risk unwinds?
16%0–6 months
What if the US freezes Iraq's dollar auctions over Iran flows?
16%1–3 years
What if post-Assad Syria fragments into warlord enclaves again?
16%6–18 months
What if Iran HEU ship-out deal for sanctions relief?
16%6–18 months
What if Gulf arms super-cycle bids defense names?
16%6–18 months
What if JCPOA-style deal revived with snapback guardrails?
16%6–18 months
What if Hormuz transit insurance normalizes after standoff?
16%1–3 years
What if Gulf-Iran economic interdependence dampens conflict?
16%6–18 months
What if Geopolitical oil-corridor scare spikes India's import-cost tail?
15%0–6 months
What if conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz and spikes crude and gas prices?
15%6–18 months
What if Iran-deal oil overhang caps Brent near $60?
15%6–18 months
What if Iran proxy network rolled back across the region?
15%1–3 years
What if Iran rejoins NPT safeguards in full?
15%6–18 months
What if Iranian condensate return softens the product complex?
15%1–3 years
What if US-Iran prisoner-and-funds deal opens dialogue?
14%0–6 months
What if a broader Middle East war removes 4 million barrels per day and sends Brent to $160?
14%6–18 months
What if a Middle East conflict disrupts Gulf oil flows and spikes Brent above $120?
14%0–6 months
What if US-Israeli strikes hit Fordow and Natanz?
14%1–3 years
What if Iran enters verified nuclear freeze?
14%0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
14%6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente holds and deepens?
14%6–18 months
What if Iraqi militia attacks resume on US bases and oil?
14%6–18 months
What if Iran domestic unrest raises oil-supply and regional risk?
13%6–18 months
What if maximum-pressure enforcement strips roughly 1.5mb/d of Iranian crude from the market?
13%0–6 months
What if Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING?
13%6–18 months
What if Iran-deal disinflation lets the Fed cut?
13%1–3 years
What if Iran reintegration revives a regional carry trade?
13%0–6 months
What if Gaza war escalates into a multi-front Israel war?
12%0–6 months
What if the US sanctions Chinese banks over Iran's oil?
12%6–18 months
What if a popular uprising topples Iran's Islamic Republic?
12%0–6 months
What if an Israel-Iran exchange targeting energy infrastructure drives Brent above $120?
12%6–18 months
What if snapback sanctions remove 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports from the market?
12%6–18 months
What if a secondary-sanctions crackdown on Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payments and shipping?
12%6–18 months
What if Iran races to a crude nuclear device?
12%0–6 months
What if Hormuz tanker attacks reopen the war-risk bid?
12%6–18 months
What if Beirut-Tel Aviv war goes deep and long?
12%0–6 months
What if Iran retaliation hits Saudi and UAE oil terminals?
12%0–6 months
What if Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold?
12%6–18 months
What if Gulf states drawn directly into an Iran war?
12%6–18 months
What if IAEA loses access as Iran ejects inspectors?
11%1–3 years
What if a surge of sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian barrels floods an oversupplied oil market?
11%6–18 months
What if Israel strikes Iran without US backing?
11%1–3 years
What if Iran assembles a nuclear arsenal, Gulf goes nuclear?
11%6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente collapses back into rivalry?
11%0–6 months
What if US carrier strike group deters wider Gulf war?
11%0–6 months
What if Oil-spike inflation scare repriced across rates curves?
11%0–6 months
What if Tit-for-tat Israel-Iran direct strikes resume?
11%6–18 months
What if Hormuz scare spikes jet and diesel cracks on supply fear?
10%1–3 years
What if a second uprising topples Iran's regime?
10%6–18 months
What if Azerbaijan seizes the Zangezur corridor by force?
10%0–6 months
What if tanker attacks in the Gulf embed a $30 per barrel war-risk premium in Brent?
10%0–6 months
What if a Hormuz security crisis sends tanker rates up threefold with war-risk surcharges?
10%1–3 years
What if a sustained oil slump pressures Oman's fiscal position and rial peg?
10%0–6 months
What if a wider Israel-Iran or regional war threatens Gulf oil infrastructure and shipping?
10%6–18 months
What if Prolonged Hormuz closure forces SPR releases?
10%0–6 months
What if Strait closure strands Qatari LNG, JKM spikes?
10%0–6 months
What if Hormuz-driven LNG and product scare spikes TTF and diesel together?
9%1–3 years
What if Iran tests a nuclear weapon and breaks out?
9%0–6 months
What if Iran mines and fully closes the Strait of Hormuz?
9%0–6 months
What if Hormuz disruption strands Qatari LNG and spikes gas prices across Asia and Europe?
9%6–18 months
What if a Gulf escalation freezes tanker traffic through Hormuz and spikes crude and freight?
9%0–6 months
What if Hormuz re-mined, ~10mbd pulled off market?
9%0–6 months
What if Twin chokepoint shock: Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb?
9%0–6 months
What if Naval clash in Hormuz spikes the war premium?
9%0–6 months
What if Iran mines the Strait after a failed deal?
9%0–6 months
What if Strike on Bushehr reactor sparks contamination fear?
9%0–6 months
What if Months-long Hormuz blockade drives demand destruction?
8%6–18 months
What if an Iran-backed Shia uprising erupts in Bahrain?
8%1–3 years
What if tighter sanctions and low prices strangle Iranian oil revenue and deepen fiscal stress?
8%6–18 months
What if loss of medium-sour barrels from Iran and Russia leaves refiners short of the grades they need?
8%6–18 months
What if Iranian regime collapse, fattest oil tail to $150?
8%0–6 months
What if Strait of Hormuz scare halts Qatari LNG, JKM doubles?
7%0–6 months
What if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?
7%0–6 months
What if Iranian strikes knock Abu Dhabi's crude exports offline?
7%0–6 months
What if a Saudi-Iran direct military confrontation threatens both countries' oil exports at once?
7%0–6 months
What if a flashpoint triggers a sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
6%6–18 months
What if Iran-aligned militias seize Iraq's Basra oilfields?
6%0–6 months
What if a Hormuz closure sends Brent toward $180 and forces emergency stock releases?
6%0–6 months
What if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and sends Brent toward $200?
6%0–6 months
What if Iran mines Hormuz approaches and halts tanker transits for weeks?
6%0–6 months
What if Hormuz and the Red Sea are disrupted simultaneously and overwhelm rerouting capacity?