Iran — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Iran and its globally‑connected markets.
106 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
37%6–18 months
What if Heavy-sour glut widens discounts as upgraders run flat-out?
35%0–6 months
What if Iran's inflation tops 80 percent as deficit monetisation accelerates?
35%6–18 months
What if Iran sanctions relief adds 1.3 mb/d into an oversupplied market?
29%1–3 years
What if Sanctions relief reopens a major economy to trade?
28%6–18 months
What if Middle East ceasefire cools the air-defense and munitions trade?
27%0–6 months
What if Hormuz gas-feedstock cost-push spikes Middle-East urea?
27%0–6 months
What if failed sanctions talks collapse Iran's rial past 1.6 million?
25%1–3 years
What if Comprehensive regional security framework signed?
25%1–3 years
What if Iran-Israel back-channel de-escalation holds?
24%1–3 years
What if Strategic-reserve coordination caps any Hormuz spike?
22%0–6 months
What if Iran export crackdown pulls 1 mb/d of barrels off the water?
22%1–3 years
What if Pipeline bypass routes blunt the Hormuz weapon?
21%6–18 months
What if Strait-of-Hormuz threat spikes oil and vol?
20%0–6 months
What if Israel bombs Iran's nuclear sites and Iran retaliates?
19%6–18 months
What if Hormuz mines cleared, flows normalize?
18%0–6 months
What if Iran ballistic salvo overwhelms Israeli defenses?
18%1–3 years
What if Iran-deal disinflation re-rates EM oil importers?
18%6–18 months
What if Iran proxy network rolled back across the region?
18%6–18 months
What if Iran sanctions relief returns 1.5mbd to market?
18%6–18 months
What if Syria sectarian war reignites?
17%6–18 months
What if Covert Iranian enrichment breakout exposed?
17%1–3 years
What if De-escalation flips Brent into contango glut?
17%6–18 months
What if Hormuz transit insurance normalizes after standoff?
17%1–3 years
What if Iran-deal sanctions relief revives tanker oversupply?
17%6–18 months
What if Iran HEU ship-out deal for sanctions relief?
17%0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
16%6–18 months
What if Geopolitical oil-corridor scare spikes India's import-cost tail?
16%6–18 months
What if Gulf arms super-cycle bids defense names?
16%1–3 years
What if Gulf-Iran economic interdependence dampens conflict?
16%0–6 months
What if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil risk unwinds?
16%0–6 months
What if the US freezes Iraq's dollar auctions over Iran flows?
16%6–18 months
What if JCPOA-style deal revived with snapback guardrails?
16%1–3 years
What if post-Assad Syria fragments into warlord enclaves again?
16%6–18 months
What if a US-Iran nuclear deal reopens Iranian oil?
15%6–18 months
What if Iran-deal oil overhang caps Brent near $60?
15%1–3 years
What if Iran rejoins NPT safeguards in full?
15%6–18 months
What if Iranian condensate return softens the product complex?
15%0–6 months
What if conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz and spikes crude and gas prices?
15%1–3 years
What if US-Iran prisoner-and-funds deal opens dialogue?
14%0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
14%6–18 months
What if Iran domestic unrest raises oil-supply and regional risk?
14%1–3 years
What if Iran enters verified nuclear freeze?
14%3–10 years
What if Iran opening and reintegration ease oil-supply risk (good)?
14%1–3 years
What if Iran reintegration revives a regional carry trade?
14%6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente holds and deepens?
14%6–18 months
What if Iraqi militia attacks resume on US bases and oil?
14%6–18 months
What if a Middle East conflict disrupts Gulf oil flows and spikes Brent above $120?
14%0–6 months
What if a broader Middle East war removes 4 million barrels per day and sends Brent to $160?
14%0–6 months
What if US-Israeli strikes hit Fordow and Natanz?
13%0–6 months
What if Gaza war escalates into a multi-front Israel war?
13%6–18 months
What if Iran-deal disinflation lets the Fed cut?
13%6–18 months
What if maximum-pressure enforcement strips roughly 1.5mb/d of Iranian crude from the market?
13%0–6 months
What if Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING?
12%6–18 months
What if Beirut-Tel Aviv war goes deep and long?
12%0–6 months
What if the US sanctions Chinese banks over Iran's oil?
12%6–18 months
What if Gulf states drawn directly into an Iran war?
12%0–6 months
What if Hormuz tanker attacks reopen the war-risk bid?
12%6–18 months
What if IAEA loses access as Iran ejects inspectors?
12%6–18 months
What if snapback sanctions remove 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports from the market?
12%6–18 months
What if Iran races to a crude nuclear device?
12%0–6 months
What if Iran retaliation hits Saudi and UAE oil terminals?
12%6–18 months
What if a popular uprising topples Iran's Islamic Republic?
12%0–6 months
What if an Israel-Iran exchange targeting energy infrastructure drives Brent above $120?
12%0–6 months
What if Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold?
12%6–18 months
What if a secondary-sanctions crackdown on Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payments and shipping?
11%6–18 months
What if Hormuz scare spikes jet and diesel cracks on supply fear?
11%1–3 years
What if Iran assembles a nuclear arsenal, Gulf goes nuclear?
11%6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente collapses back into rivalry?
11%1–3 years
What if a second uprising topples Iran's regime?
11%6–18 months
What if Israel strikes Iran without US backing?
11%0–6 months
What if Oil-spike inflation scare repriced across rates curves?
11%0–6 months
What if Tit-for-tat Israel-Iran direct strikes resume?
11%0–6 months
What if US carrier strike group deters wider Gulf war?
11%1–3 years
What if a surge of sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian barrels floods an oversupplied oil market?
10%6–18 months
What if Azerbaijan seizes the Zangezur corridor by force?
10%0–6 months
What if a Hormuz security crisis sends tanker rates up threefold with war-risk surcharges?
10%0–6 months
What if Hormuz-driven LNG and product scare spikes TTF and diesel together?
10%0–6 months
What if tanker attacks in the Gulf embed a $30 per barrel war-risk premium in Brent?
10%0–6 months
What if a wider Israel-Iran or regional war threatens Gulf oil infrastructure and shipping?
10%1–3 years
What if a sustained oil slump pressures Oman's fiscal position and rial peg?
10%6–18 months
What if Prolonged Hormuz closure forces SPR releases?
10%0–6 months
What if Strait closure strands Qatari LNG, JKM spikes?
9%0–6 months
What if Hormuz disruption strands Qatari LNG and spikes gas prices across Asia and Europe?
9%0–6 months
What if Hormuz re-mined, ~10mbd pulled off market?
9%6–18 months
What if a Gulf escalation freezes tanker traffic through Hormuz and spikes crude and freight?
9%0–6 months
What if Iran mines and fully closes the Strait of Hormuz?
9%0–6 months
What if Iran mines the Strait after a failed deal?
9%1–3 years
What if Iran tests a nuclear weapon and breaks out?
9%0–6 months
What if Months-long Hormuz blockade drives demand destruction?
9%0–6 months
What if Naval clash in Hormuz spikes the war premium?
9%0–6 months
What if Strike on Bushehr reactor sparks contamination fear?
9%0–6 months
What if Twin chokepoint shock: Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb?
8%6–18 months
What if an Iran-backed Shia uprising erupts in Bahrain?
8%1–3 years
What if tighter sanctions and low prices strangle Iranian oil revenue and deepen fiscal stress?
8%6–18 months
What if Iranian regime collapse, fattest oil tail to $150?
8%0–6 months
What if a Saudi-Iran direct military confrontation threatens both countries' oil exports at once?
8%0–6 months
What if a flashpoint triggers a sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
8%6–18 months
What if loss of medium-sour barrels from Iran and Russia leaves refiners short of the grades they need?
8%0–6 months
What if Strait of Hormuz scare halts Qatari LNG, JKM doubles?
7%0–6 months
What if Iranian strikes knock Abu Dhabi's crude exports offline?
7%0–6 months
What if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?
7%0–6 months
What if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and sends Brent toward $200?
6%0–6 months
What if a Hormuz closure sends Brent toward $180 and forces emergency stock releases?
6%0–6 months
What if Iran mines Hormuz approaches and halts tanker transits for weeks?
6%6–18 months
What if Iran-aligned militias seize Iraq's Basra oilfields?
6%0–6 months
What if Hormuz and the Red Sea are disrupted simultaneously and overwhelm rerouting capacity?