What if JKM-TTF spread inverts, Atlantic LNG cargoes divert to Asia?
A cold Asian winter pushes JKM above TTF by several dollars, opening an arbitrage that diverts US and Qatari cargoes toward Asia and tightening European supply just as storage draws accelerate.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold Asian winter pushes JKM above TTF by several dollars, opening an arbitrage that diverts US and Qatari cargoes toward Asia and tightening European supply just as storage draws accelerate. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.