What if Jobs-report shock: a blowout payroll kills the cut narrative?
A blowout payrolls print upends a dovish consensus, repricing cuts out of the curve and spiking real yields as the labor market refuses to cool.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A blowout payrolls print upends a dovish consensus, repricing cuts out of the curve and spiking real yields as the labor market refuses to cool. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.67–-0.31% · other way -1.22% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.62–-0.24% · other way -1.32% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -11.7–+1.82% · other way -6.98% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.42–+2.01% · other way -2.29% (n=6) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -2.51–+20.29% · other way +16.9% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.55–+0.81% · other way +1.03% (n=10) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -4.9–+21.68% · other way +16.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.7–+2.87% · other way -7.25% (n=6) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.83–+3.1% · other way -2.37% (n=7) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.95–+0.51% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.57–+0.39% · other way +1.92% (n=9) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.69–+0.06% · other way -1.83% (n=10) |
| 14 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.08–+0.41% · other way -5.68% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -9.5% · 5d -6.1% | 81% | 17 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.6% | 77% | 20 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.4% | 74% | 10 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.6% | 73% | 17 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.2% | 70% | 17 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 70% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +4bp | 65% | 24 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -6.4% | 69% | 13 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -6.9% | 68% | 11 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 65% | 17 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -4.4% | 67% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 63% | 16 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 17 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 59% | 17 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |